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Investing 2020 Election Year???

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Does anyone have any interesting investment plans for the 2020 election year?

I fully expect a trade deal with China will get completed before the election (the timing of that deal likely won't be a coincidence).  I've read predictions that a China trade deal could lead to a 5-8% stock market run-up followed by a period uncertainty.  

I've talked to a few people that follow the "sell in may and go away" addage.  I've never done it before, but they almost have me talked into it for 2020.  Almost.

At some point in 2020, I'll move 5-10% of my portfolio into gold & silver.  Other than that, I'm undecided if I'll make any changes or not :dunno:

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Not much, looking at suppliers for space launches, and military aerospace, specifically the unmanned wing man stuff. There's been some advancements in the military AI programming for unmanned aircraft. I'm just an aerospace nerd. I'm switching to a broker that invests quite well, and gonna forget about it. And he researches my recommendations and mostly agrees and buys in. He doesn't know much about space and military and aerospace stuff. edit: I need more silver... I just like to have it around.

Edited by ReconRat

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Asking about changing around your asset allocation based on speculation related to politics is pretty much right up there with market timing.  Almost no one can do it reliably and the VAST MAJORITY of investors who try end up realizing lower returns than simply following the broad market.  I'm gonna be 70 next year and don't have a pension income, so my only income is from my investments.  Even so, I'm invested 75:25 equities:bonds with about a 1-year pot of cash to weather market variables.  I basically buy and hold and do a yearly rebalance in the fall and try to offset LTCG with any losses to minimize the tax bite.  I know that's old and boring advice, but it's been proven over the course of many decades to be pretty accurate.  Worst case scenario--in the event of an extended and profound bear market--I could prolly tighten the purse strings and live comfortably, albeit not extravagantly, on the dividend and interest income.  Of course, once I hit the magic 70.5 age, RMDs will keep me pretty happy and well-fed and provide a nice cushion for "alternative" investments....like motorcycles!

Wishing you luck in the market!!!

Edited by Bubba
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Add/FYI:  I don't play any speculative investments like gold, silver, bitcoin, or pork bellies!  I know--really boring old guy...

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On 11/30/2019 at 10:15 AM, Bubba said:

Asking about changing around your asset allocation based on speculation related to politics is pretty much right up there with market timing. 

I don't know that I'd call it market timing.  It doesn't happen every year, but it's a trend that's been recognized for a long time.  I've never done it, but I know someone who's followed it for years (with a few tweaks) with some impressive results.   Also, 5-10% in precious metal is a pretty standard hedge.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/30/sell-in-may-and-go-away-maybe-not-this-year.html

An investor putting $10,000 into the S&P 500 between May 1 and Oct. 31, 1950 to the present would have $4,138, an astonishing loss of $5,862.

An investor putting $10,000 into the S&P 500 from Nov. 1 to April 20 over the same time period would have a gain of $2,836,350.

That is not a typo. We are talking about a gain of $2,836,350, versus a loss of $5,862.

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Yeah, I get it.  I'm aware of the go-away-in-May strategy.  My point was more about your query with regards to making "strategic" changes to your portfolio in anticipation of the 2020 election outcome.  As far as the link above, the other way to look at that data is that IF you had stayed fully invested over the entire period from 1950 to present, you would have a gain of $2,836,350 - $5862 = $2,830,488 for a delta of 0.9979, or 0.0021% difference.  Plus, I'm not a big fan of data harvesting using an arbitrary point in time to mine for results....IMHO.

Not saying you shouldn't go forward with your strategy--just sharing another view.

Edited by Bubba

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Add:  I don't have an issue with some exposure to precious metals, altho 10%--even 5%--is high for my taste.  You hold essentially the same thing with treasury bonds or similar.  Yes, there is the risk of inflationary loss, but you minimize the risk of devaluation and market volatility.  Don't see huge risk of the US govt defaulting any time soon.  Again, not saying it's a bad/dumb strategy....just two ways to get at a similar outcome.

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20 minutes ago, Bubba said:

Yeah, I get it.  I'm aware of the go-away-in-May strategy.  My point was more about your query with regards to making "strategic" changes to your portfolio in anticipation of the 2020 election outcome.  As far as the link above, the other way to look at that data is that IF you had stayed fully invested over the entire period from 1950 to present, you would have a gain of $2,836,350 - $5862 = $2,830,488 for a delta of 0.9979, or 0.0021% difference.  Plus, I'm not a big fan of data harvesting using an arbitrary point in time to mine for results....IMHO.

Not saying you shouldn't go forward with your strategy--just sharing another view.

The only reason I think it's an advantage is you are avoiding a degree of risk by limiting your exposure during the cycle when gains are less likely.  If there is an correction or overall market drop you can go back in during a low point and come out ahead.  The converse is also true and you could miss out on market gains, but historically there seems to be less chance of that.  There seems to be many flavors of that strategy :dunno:

Buy and hold is another fine strategy.  That's what I've done for years.

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Riding it out?

Sell and sit out?

Buy on the dip?

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If you have a long investment horizon, definitely ride it out.   

I think this Warren Buffett guy has something to say about buying on the dips: be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.

It will be interesting to see how the economy acts after this Covid19 plays itself out. 

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I am riding it out.  My overall strategy accounts for a bear market.

I did buy a couple on the dip that have a big upside.

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The market in the short term is very unpredictable.  The market in the long term is very predictable.  Ride it out and if you have money to invest, buying when it's low is always a great strategy. 

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Casinos, cruise lines, airlines, oil companies were especially hard hit.  

I took a position in Marathon oil (MRO) at a deep discount.  Oil is at an 18 year low.  I anticipate some upside when people are driving again and we get through the over supply we currently have

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I think averaging down is a good idea right now.  We have a ways to go still, imo.  Personally, I'm investing heavily in porn and weed and adult diapers.  

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Nasdaq is back i positive territory for 2020, and the S&P is within 8%.  That's pretty impressive, all things considered.

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my work  (NYSE)

image.png.601dc63e4dc32b152ca40b80d16ab2b6.png

Edited by motocat12

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I am hiring 6 plus people right now just for development and sales are up considerably. What recession?

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My YTD is still slightly negative on my retirement plan but if you sort by 1 calendar year I am still ahead of the game and still earning way more than gov bonds or anything short term that my bank offers.  I'm still playing the long game and hopefully going to see good returns on everything purchased during this last few months as things recover.

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The fact that the Dow is only off by a couple thousand points from its peak and is still "hanging in there" leads me to believe that it will come back rapidly once there is some solidly positive news on the COVID front, specifically an effective vaccine. We decided to just stay put, and our financial guy has made few changes to both my and wife's portfolios. I'm kinda surprised that the markets are not hurting more than they are.

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4 hours ago, Tonik said:

I am hiring 6 plus people right now just for development and sales are up considerably. What recession?

Great news.

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i personally think it's going to crater soon, but that's ok, I'm going to live forever so i'm just gonna leave my shit in there and should be fine overall.

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1 minute ago, jbot said:

i personally think it's going to crater soon, but that's ok, I'm going to live forever so i'm just gonna leave my shit in there and should be fine overall.

You are likely younger than I am (64), but I think yours is a solid plan, Mr. (rich) Bastard. 

I am starting Social Security in six months, and my teaching pension the following year. Life is good, but unlike you, I now know I'm not gonna live forever.

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Yea, another drop is coming. There are some big layoffs happening now at large corps that thought they could ride it out.

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It will be interesting to see how Harley Davidson fares, although covid likely doesn't play a very important role either way. 

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23 minutes ago, jbot said:

i personally think it's going to crater soon, but that's ok, I'm going to live forever so i'm just gonna leave my shit in there and should be fine overall.

I'm not expecting a crater, but there will be dips.  I'll be buying if it does crater.

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